Newcomb's Problem

	$1M in Box 2	$0 in Box 2
Take only box 2	$1M	$0
Take both boxes	$1 M +$ 1000	$1000

Background

There is a predictor that is 99% accurate is predicting whether people will only take box 2 or both boxes

Procedure

Predictor makes their prediction
They put $1000 in box 1 (which you know)
They put $0 inb o x 2 i f t h ey t hink yo u w i llt ak e b o t han d$ 1M if they think you will only take box 2
Choose either both boxes or box 2

Arguments

Two-box argument: dominance argument
1. We can perhaps rule out the dominance argument because it only applies when states are independent of our actions (which is not the case here)
One-box argument: taking only box 2 almost guarantees $1M. Calculate using expected utility
1. EU(both) = 0.01(1M + 1k) + 0.99(1k) = 11k
2. EU(box 2) = 0.99(1M) + 0.01(0) = 990k